The Lion and Gun

Despite increased turnout in Alaska's primaries even before the state's governor was added to the Republican ticket; despite high-profile Senate and Congressional races; and despite increased early votes, total voter turnout was ostensibly down significantly in Alaska -- probably, pound for pound, the most corrupt state in America. Not only that, but two of the country's most corrupt politicians, one a recently-convicted felon and the other on his way to conviction, were re-elected despite pollsters' consensus that they were both down significantly in the polls. It was the only major race pollsters, as a whole, called wrong. Both men are Republicans running in a Republican-controlled state.

The Washington Post asks the right questions but doesn't offer any answers. Now, I'm not conspiracy-minded by nature. But the perfect storm of unlikely coincidences that led to the re-election of two notoriously corrupt politicians in a notoriously corrupt state suggests foul play is a possibility. They could just be coincidences, but there's reasonable doubt. I, for one, wouldn't be surprised if there are a few tens of thousands of ballots that simply haven't been counted.

This calls for an investigation. Whether by media or government (or both) I don't care, as long as it's fair and thorough and independent. And if, hypothetically, the investigation does come up with evidence of large scale fraud, possibly to the degree that the election has essentially been rigged, what will that do to the state Governor's career?

Barack Obama just wrapped up his first press conference as President-Elect. With news of close to a quarter million jobs lost in October, Obama promised that a fiscal stimulus plan would be his first priority as President. Specifically, Obama suggested extending unemployment insurance benefits, passing a job creation plan, and diverting aid to cash-strapped state and local governments to avoid lay-offs. The Democrat also suggested that he would be prepared to take any action in his power to save the faltering auto industry and would consider further legislation to that end if need be. Obama made no attempt to dampen expectations, declaring that the President can have 'enormous impact' on the economy in his first hundred days.

Ross is the economist here -- and more of a libertarian than I am -- but I think that a better case can be made for priming the pump now than at any other time since the Great Depression. (I'm less disposed to bailing out the auto industry, which has fallen into decrepitude over the past few decades.) Targeted investments in America's decaying infrastructure, improvements in public transit, and a promised expansion in green jobs could provide the cash stimulus the economy needs while helping to reduce American dependence on fossil fuels and easing the problem of global warming.

Obama has set large goals for his first months in office, something he rarely seems wont to do. This will raise the stakes for Obama's Presidency, but his call to action could also rally the American people behind him to pressure the incoming Congress into passing broad legislation. Certainly the current crisis provides an opportunity to make lasting changes in American policy, and having as good a communicator as Obama in the Oval Office will help. Beyond immediate rescue packages Obama today continued to emphasize the importance of health care and education reform as well as tax relief and energy independence.

Whether Obama will or won't be a transformational leader is an open question right now. But transformation requires a happy meeting of strong leadership and propitious circumstance, and America today has an abundance of the latter.

It continues:

TEHRAN, Nov. 6 -- President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has congratulated President-elect Barack Obama on his victory, the first time since Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution that an Iranian leader has offered such wishes to an American counterpart.
This Story

Ahmadinejad wrote a letter to Obama saying Iran would welcome "major, fair and real changes, in policies and actions, especially in this region," according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency. Analysts here say the letter indicates that Iran is ready to improve relations with the United States.

In his campaign for the presidency, Obama said he would be ready to talk to Iranian leaders without preconditions. The Bush administration has long insisted that Iran stop enriching uranium before any negotiations can begin; Iran has resisted those demands, maintaining that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Many Shiite politicians had been under intense pressure from Iranian leaders not to sign a security agreement. . . . But now, the Iraqis appear to be feeling less pressure from Iran, perhaps because the Iranians are less worried that an Obama government will try to force a regime change in their country.

It begins:

BAGHDAD — Barack Obama may have been elected only three days ago, but his victory is already beginning to shift the political ground in Iraq and the region.

Iraqi Shiite politicians are indicating that they will move faster toward a new security agreement about American troops, and a Bush administration official said he believed that Iraqis could ratify the agreement as early as the middle of this month.

“Before, the Iraqis were thinking that if they sign the pact, there will be no respect for the schedule of troop withdrawal by Dec. 31, 2011,” said Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party. “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”

Nebraska, one of two states (along with Maine) to split its electoral votes by Congressional District, for the first time looks likely to split its electoral votes between the two parties. While former Republican Presidential nominee John McCain won the deep red state, as the final votes are tallied President-Elect Barack Obama looks certain to squeak by in the state's Second Congressional District surrounding Omaha. This will bring the final tally to 365 Electoral Votes for Obama, 163 for McCain.

Just a quick word on how this stacks up to The Lion and Gun's predictions. On the whole we did pretty well. Putting a little too much faith in black and youth turnout, we overestimated Obama's popular vote and underestimated McCain's by almost exactly one point each: we guessed a 53.7%/45.2% split; the actual was 52.6%/46.2%. We projected that Georgia would narrowly go for Obama -- it didn't -- and that Nebraska's Second would narrowly go to McCain. Otherwise all of our electoral vote predictions were spot on, including our call that Indiana would buck the polls and go for Obama. All of our Senate picks were correct with the exception of convicted felon Ted Stevens, who astoundingly won re-election despite polls suggesting he was in for a thumping. Our prediction that Al Franken would narrowly win Minnesota remains to be seen as that state goes to recount.

On the whole, a good result for Democrats and a good result for The Lion and Gun. We'll be honest with you; we're feeling pretty smug about this.

Following on my post below: Some have suggested that announcing Rahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff before anybody else and within 48 hours of winning the Presidency was a mistake. Whatever Emanuel's merits his controversial selection is a wobbly first step that might bind Obama's hands from tapping equally-controversial Larry Summers for Treasury. As Noam Scheiber puts it:

It's not just that, if Obama picked Summers, he'd suddenly have two people in very senior positions who don't quite fit his "no drama" mantra. It's that he'd have two people who don't quite fit the "no drama" mold as two of his first appointments. Worse, he'd have two people whose mere announcements (to say nothing of they're actual tenures) stirred up more than a little drama--Rahm because of his public anguishing and Summers because of the lefty mau-mauing he's already inspiring. . . . [Y]ou only want so many bad, appointment-related, news cycles out of the gate.

Keep reading...

Retract post

Obama's choice of Rahm Emanuel for Chief of Staff has been a controversial first step for the incoming administration. Republicans have pounced on Emanuel's reputation as a fierce partisan, decrying the hollowness of Obama's appeal to new politics and bipartisanship. Some progressives, for their part, decry Emanuel's close ties to centrist Blue Dog Democrats and recruitment of centrists candidates in conservative districts, a decision which has simultaneously expanded the Democratic caucus and shifted it rightward.

Neither criticism really says what it means to say. Emanuel is, indeed, a fierce partisan, but he also spent years in a chastened Clinton White House working with a newly-ascendant Republican Congress, confident and combative, to move legislation forward. Emanuel has groomed middle-of-the-road Democrats and provided them with the inroads to influence that will ease their re-election, but his own politics are further to the left than most of them. He's no Blue Dog.

What both criticisms really reveal is Emanuel's pragmatic political realism and his determination to win.

Politics ain't beanbag. All those hard-nosed Democrats who feared a teddy bear administration would try to cuddle its partisan enemies and find itself swiftly de-fluffed have less reason to worry. Bipartisanship really isn't about airy rhetoric and putting aside the politics of yesterday. The rhetoric has its place in appealing to the masses -- in tandem with Obama's huge grassroots organization, still in place -- to apply pressure from the bottom. But the real work of bipartisanship occurs around conference tables in meeting rooms with stale donuts and cold coffee in paper cups. The real work of bipartisanship is a sometimes ugly game of horse-trading and pressure and political trickery. The real work of bipartisanship needs a bad cop, not a good cop. Sausages and legislation, indeed.

So this appointment doesn't necessarily entail a shift to the center. Maybe it does. That remains to be seen. What it does show is a determination to pass legislation as quickly and competently as possible. Previous Democratic administrations spent the first half of their first term flailing, and Obama's team will inevitably make its share of missteps, too. But if they want to minimize mistakes and and maximize legislative effectiveness, Rahm Emanuel is their guy. Whatever his own colorful personality, he still fits into the larger narrative of a no drama Obama.

The incoming President will meet with the outgoing President on Monday to begin the process of transition.

Yesterday it was reported that Illinois Congressman and former Clinton staffer Rahm Emmanuel had been appointed Barack Obama's White House Chief of Staff. The story was then walked back, the leak apparently out too early, as it became clear that Emmanuel had yet to accept the position. Twenty-four hours later Emmanuel's acceptance has been confirmed.

The leak, whether it came from the Obama camapign or Emanuel's office (and it seems likely to have come from the latter), was an unfortunate misstep on Obama's first day as President-Elect. It will quickly be forgiven. The reactions to Obama's choice, however, will be longer-lasting. Emanuel is a famously aggressive, if brilliant, political bruiser. His Clinton-era fights with a Republican-controlled Congress have bred a distaste for the man amongst conservatives; his later recruitment of centrist Democrats to run for Congress, while politically profitable, has made him unpopular amongst many progressives. His personality is at odds with Obama's own and his tactics a contrast from those employed by Obama's campaign.

I don't think this selection really gives us any clues as to whether the Obama administration will move to the middle or move to the left; Rahm's centrism argues one way, his hyper-partisanship the other. It does suggest, however, that for all of Obama's talk about unity and bipartisanship and consensus, he will be willing to knock some heads when need be to get things done. It suggests a seriousness about policy and a desire to win upcoming political battles. It aligns with Obama's stated desire to balance his administration and cabinet with differing personalities offering differing ideas. Above all, it reflects the new President's hard-nosed pragmatism. To anybody who has studied Obama's rise through Chicago politics -- a rise paralleled by Emanuel himself -- none of this should be particularly surprising.

Politico reports that Robert Gibbs, the Obama campaign's communications director, will be President-Elect Obama's Press Secretary once Obama moves into the White House. As the face and voice of executive policy, the White House Press Secretary is typically the second-highest profile position in the administration after only the President himself. The position can be a delicate one, as it requires a delicate balance between access and spin. The Press Secretary has to earn reporters' trust while serving the interests of the President's agenda. Smarts and personality are important factors, and from the sounds of it this appointment is welcomed by the press:

Gibbs was usually the senior official on Air Obama, the campaign plane. . . . The announcement is likely to be viewed favorably by reporters because Gibbs has unquestioned authority, access and institutional memory.

With the remaining ballots to be counted in Oregon's entirely mail-in election all coming from Democratic strongholds of Portland and Eugene, The Oregonian has projected that Democrat Jeff Merkley will unseat incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith. This leaves Congressional Dems three seats shy of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. By happy coincidence there are three Senate races still outstanding: Alaska, where there are a number of early and absentee ballots yet to be counted; Minnesota, where the result was close enough to trigger a recount; and Georgia, where Republican Saxby Chambliss seems unlikely to reach the 50% +1 votes necessary to avoid a December run-off election.

It remains unlikely that Democrats will reach the magic number. There are better than even odds that Alaska is out of reach for them. (If indicted criminal Ted Stevens is returned to the Senate he will almost certainly be immediately expelled, leading to a special election in the new year in which Sarah Palin is likely to run and win.) Minnesota could go either way, as would a Georgia run-off. It's possible that Democrats could take all three races, but unlikely.

Political Wire and Ezra Klein wonder if Obama tricked McCain's campaign into investing its tight resources into a helpless race in Pennsylvania:

1. Obama's campaign learns McCain has just $37 million entering October.

2. Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell says he's "nervous" that McCain is gaining ground.

3. Obama's team "leaks" an internal poll proving Rendell's anxiety.

4. McCain pulls back in other states to "flood" Pennsylvania with resources.

It's been said in plenty of corners of the web already; let me add my voice to the fray. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com nailed the race almost perfectly in his projections. From kos diarist to borderline political celebrity the guy brought a ruthlessly rigorous approach to polling that will change the way polling is understood. What also needs to be recognized is co-blogger Sean Quinn's fascinating journey, along with photographer Brett Marty, across the United States to see the ground game in person. This combination of ground-level insight and detailed metrics was not only useful (and interesting) to political watchers; it also, from all I've heard, perfectly paralleled the Obama campaign's own innovative approach to organization. To that extent it will help transform not just political observation but the very act of politics itself.

The extent to which blogs are going to transform the world is, I think, hugely overplayed. It reminds me of a line from a speech a friend once gave at a meeting of hundreds of smart-as-hell university students: 'We've been hearing all week that we are the future, the leaders of tomorrow, the best of our generation. And let's be honest: it's been us that's been saying it.'

Nevertheless, Nate's blog really has changed things. That such a thing is rarer than typically supposed makes it all the more impressive an achievement.

In case you haven't seen it already:

Nation Finally Shitty Enough To Make Social Progress

WASHINGTON—After emerging victorious from one of the most pivotal elections in history, president-elect Barack Obama will assume the role of commander in chief on Jan. 20, shattering a racial barrier the United States is, at long last, shitty enough to overcome.

Although polls going into the final weeks of October showed Sen. Obama in the lead, it remained unclear whether the failing economy, dilapidated housing market, crumbling national infrastructure, health care crisis, energy crisis, and five-year-long disastrous war in Iraq had made the nation crappy enough to rise above 300 years of racial prejudice and make lasting change.

It still hasn't sunk in.

It's been kind of a strange day. I went to bed last night this morning -- it was light outside already -- and I always feel odd after that. I'm not made for sleeping during the day. And after an unusually cold two months we had a perfect day in Toronto, warm and bright and clear. I took a long walk and my Obama t-shirt attracted more than a few satisfied smiles. And I had time to think but decided not to.

Tomorrow begins the real process of change. There is much to be done, and undone, in the coming four or eight years. Serious minds and serious voices will set to it, and I hope that The Lion and Gun can be a small part of that. But for today I've relaxed and read the news from last night. Savored it, really. I still have literally thousands of articles to read and skim. Normally I'd dismiss them all. But with each I relive the evening, the precious moment in which we all saw America caught in the act of history. And so today, for me, was a day to look backward -- only a few hours. Maybe a better way to put it was that today was a day to extend the moment, to live in it, to expand within it and feel its shape.

And then after that . . . Then there's tomorrow.

Republican Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin did not, until informed by advisers, know that Africa is a continent. Let me write that again because it looks like it couldn't possibly be true and you probably think I made a mistake. I didn't. Sarah Palin did not know that Africa is a continent.

There's nothing I can really say to that. We can have arguments about the wisdom of real people versus the knowledge of intellectuals and which admixture of each is most suitable in a political candidates. But can we at least agree that we want a potential President that, if she went on Are Your Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?, would have a shot at winning?



Watching it, you've gotta love the shit-eating grin on Carl Cameron's face as he begins the report. You just know he's been chomping at the bit to tell us that one. And you expect to hear some more in coming days.

I guess this was my fault. I let Ralph Nader earn an ounce of my respect with his amusing farce of a press conference yesterday -- and then, to prove once and for all that his destructive narcissistic buffoonery truly knows no depths, he responded to the election of America's first African-American President by calling the man an Uncle Tom.

I get the point that he was making. He was not calling Obama a race traitor. Nader was accusing Obama of selling out his supporters' interests -- or, more rightly, predicting that he would do so -- to corporate America. Fine. I don't agree with Nader's essentialist and paranoiac perspective, but I find nothing morally objectionable about it. But then that's the problem, isn't it? In his quixotic quest to make himself a martyr in his own mind Nader has taken legitimate, if in my opinion often misguided, policy positions and rendered them equal parts absurd and morally execrable. Perhaps he feels that his own reputation is in blood stepp'd in so far, that, should he wade no more, returning were as tedious as go o'er. Regardless, it is no mean feat to appear on Fox News and make them look tolerant and progressive by contrast. (Though, for what it's worth, Shepard Smith is probably Fox's best asset.)

MSNBC reports that the famously aggressive Illinois Congressman, former Clinton staffer, and inspiration for my favorite The West Wing character will be Barack Obama's Chief of Staff. You can read more about Emanuel here.

Update 3:40pm: Reports now that Emanuel has been offered the position but has not decided yet whether to take it. Of course accepting the offer would require Emanuel to resign his House seat and leadership position within the Democratic caucus.

I still don't feel like I'm in a position to speak insightfully (or even coherently) about last night's result. My inclination is still to gush. Instead, for the moment, I'll direct you to Greg Sargent's take on what the election means for the politics of the past forty years:

Obama's victory represents a potential death knell -- but only a potential one -- for the 1960s cultural politics that defined and dominated our political landscape for the last four decades of the 20th Century.

There's a tidy symmetry in the fact that Obama defeated, in succession, both the Clinton machine and the Rove-Atwater brand of politics that Republicans have honed for so long.

In so doing, Obama defeated not one, but both of the leading practitioners of that 1960s-rooted cultural politics. More to the point, he did this by quite literally running against politics as both those groups practiced it.

This is a bit of a personal one for me. The film Jurassic Park came along at a time when I needed it. It made me fall in love with the movies. It's not a piece of art and it's not great cinema but I'd rather watch it than any other movie you've got. And the movie spurred me in my early teenage years to devour all of Crichton's books at an incredible pace, re-reading most of them every year for half a decade or more.

I've long since moved on to bigger and better things. I haven't read a new Crichton novel in years. I've strongly disagreed with much of his advocacy against the environmental movement and his frequent resort to fear-mongering and misinformation. Returning to some of his books a little older and a little savvier I've discovered political and cultural themes that don't sit well with me.

Nevertheless, his writing was a formative, and I think positive, influence on me. If nothing else, his writing encouraged in me a critical and rationalist worldview which I've hardly strayed from since. He taught me to take nothing at face value, and that's one of the most important lessons a young person can learn. And so it is with some genuine sadness that I regard his surprising death, at age 66, after a secret battle with cancer.

The early votes in Georgia have now been counted and the final tally denies incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss a 50% +1 majority. The election will be decided in a run-off on December 2nd. Chambliss ought to win, but the Democrats are flush with money and excitement and determination. Republicans might steel themselves against losing another Senate seat, but the National Republican Senatorial Committee's funds are anemic and the party's organization -- especially after last night's result -- a mess. Republicans are demoralized. Democrats are energized. And as run-offs are low-turnout elections that difference in morale and organization can make the difference. So this one could go either way.

More on this momentarily, but the AP is now reporting that California's Proposition 8, which would amend the state's constitution to prevent gay marriage, has passed.

It is deeply disappointing to see bigotry legally institutionalized on the very night that the nation's first African-American President was elected. Ironically, Proposition 8 likely would have failed were it not for a surge of black voters in California who overwhelmingly supported both Proposition 8 and Barack Obama.

Still waiting for a call on North Carolina, with Obama narrowly ahead. Norm Coleman declared victory with an 800-vote margin in Minnesota. Al Franken, rightly, is not conceding. That race will head to a recount. Smith barely ahead in Oregon; Chambliss barely over 50% (which would allow him to escape a run-off) in Georgia. Indicted criminal Ted Stevens still holds a narrow lead in Alaska, a state whose politics appear more nonsensical the closer you look at them.

We'll be updating you on all these races throughout the day.

That's what the talking heads are saying. Not sure what I think -- I might have preferred Tom Daschle. Still plowing through news at the moment; will update with more information when I get to it.

And still tired. Have a bunch of news to plow through before it sinks in. As my eyes were drooping last night I re-watched some pundit analysis of Obama's speech and started thinking to myself, 'Man, they love this. It's really gonna help his campaign. He'll get at least a two-day news cycle outta this.'

What I'm saying is that it might take a couple weeks to recover.

Here on the pulse of this new day
You may have the grace to look up and out
And into your sister's eyes, into
Your brother's face, your country
And say simply
Very simply
With hope
Good morning.

I'm calling it a night. Will catch a few hours sleep and then have heaps of news to sift through when I wake. It's been a big night. But be sure to check back in tomorrow as we digest the results of the evening and its implications, bring you the first news of Obama's transition, and collect tonight's greatest highlights for The Lion and Gun's own memory reel.

Good night, or morning, or whatever. It's been fun. It's been extraordinary.

As one famous fictional President would say: 'What's next?'

Update: Seriously, though. Don't expect anything out of me before noon.

My Georgia prediction might not have been so far off after all. By way of Josh at Talking Points Memo, it appears that early votes, which were disproportionately African-American, have yet to be counted. This represents at least 600,000 votes, possibly more. That could conceivably flip the state to Obama; more importantly, it could benefit Democrat Jim Martin in his Senate race against Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss, who currently leads by about 150,000 votes. It's unlikely that it would be enough to give Martin an outright victory; however, if Chambliss's tally be kept to under 50% of the total vote there will be a run-off race in December. Democrats are in a much better financial (and psychological) position to gun for the state in a potential rematch.

In other Senate races: Republican Norm Coleman is back in the lead in Minnesota but by less than 3,000 votes. Republican Gordon Smith narrowly leads in Oregon with half of precincts left to report. The most staggering result of the night, however, could be Alaska, where criminally indicted corrupt king of pork Ted Stevens, who would surpass his fellow Alaskan Sarah Palin as chief national laughingstock if only he mattered, remains in an improbable lead with 96% of precincts reporting.

I'm not sure how the vote so far breaks down -- if we're waiting for Dem-leaning areas to report back -- but with 72% of precincts reporting Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, recently indicted on seven counts of political corruption, is currently leading Dem challenger and Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. This blows my mind.

It's also a tight race in Oregon at the moment. The story of the Senate seems to be that the Democratis might not pick up quite as many seats as hoped, or even expected. We'll know better tomorrow morning.

Extremely close race here. Dem candidate and political comedian Al Franken currently down by about two thousand votes, out of about 2.5 million cast, with 94% of all precincts reporting.

Update 3:55am: Franken takes the lead with 98% reporting.

Photo provided under a CC license by Aaron Landry

It was called a while ago.

Three states remain -- North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana. McCain is leading in Montana, where Ron Paul is on the ballot but taking only about two points away from the Republican. But with only 81% of precincts reporting it could still go either way. The margins in both Missouri and North Carolina, with almost all ballots counted, are razor thin. Currently McCain holds a lead in Missouri of just under four hundred votes out of about three million cast in the state; Obama is ahead by about 12,000 votes (out of just over four million) in North Carolina. With all precincts reporting in the latter state perhaps we'll have to wait for provisional and absentee ballots to be counted. It will be some time before those two states are settled, but my gut (and The Lion and Gun's crystal ball) has told me that they'll end up the way they are now -- North Carolina to Obama, Missouri to McCain.

Just made it home from my friend's place where we were gathered to watch the election results. It's late, an unusually warm and clear November night. Toronto's streets are empty and still. But there are lights on throughout the city.

I stopped into the convenience store in my building before making my way upstairs, and the Afghan man who works the night shift -- a former mathematics teacher who escaped his country with half his family during the Soviet occupation -- was lording it over a gaggle of customers. I've spoken with the man often; he still has family in Afghanistan and Pakistan: loved ones who have been hurt and dispossessed by the Soviets, hurt and dispossessed by the Taliban, hurt and dispossessed during the current occupation. He reads the New York Times and once in a while clips articles for me about the progress of the war or politics in his homeland. The little TV behind the counter is usually tuned to CNN. He speaks passionately in broken English about what America has done, the terrible things George W. Bush's administration has done. He despises Islamic extremism, despises the Taliban and Al Qaeda, deplores so many awful deeds committed in the name of his Prophet. And yet I have never heard kind words from him about the United States of America.

Until tonight.

The tiny knot of people, five or six, represented perhaps four or five countries on at least three continents. They must have known this man and, feeling as strangely curious about his reaction as I did, had found their way to the store. And he was holding court before them, talking happily, excitedly, ecstatically, about the new era in American politics. About this new man, this new face. This young black man, this graceful and intelligent man, who somehow drew unto himself all of America's better angels and seemed to personify all that is great and good about America, had by virtue of his election entirely changed this man's conception of the nation. It is a land of promise, he said, and for the first time in a long time that promise seems ready to be fulfilled.

Tonight America has been born again in the eyes of the world. America is young again. I do not doubt that Obama will disappoint many at home, and when he comes to place the interests of America before the interests of the world -- as any responsible President ought to do -- the planet's moment of jubilation will pass. The disappointment beyond the America's borders will be deeper and more keenly felt than amongst any Americans save Obama's most hopeful and skeptical followers. And yet any disappointment in Obama the President is unlikely to touch the depths of despair the world has felt at the tenure of George W. Bush. And any disappointment in Obama the man will not erase the fact that Americans elected him at this moment. That the American people united with the world to reject Bushism. That the American people in one night confounded all the (admittedly low) expectations the rest of the world had of them.

This election has filled an angry Aghan exile living in Canada, who has probably never set foot in the United States, with more hope than he's felt in a very long time. That says something. Maybe it's just sentimentality, but senitment matters.

America, the world is watching. And you got it right.

It's going to be interesting.

And what I realize, watching this, is that what I thought would feel like an ending instead feels like a beginning.

12:25am I'm heading back home so I'll be out of commission for a bit, but will be blogging for a few hours after that. Back soon.

12:17am Obama's speech was very good -- tired but determined. What is inspiring is the reaction of the crowds. It's the kind of moment that we can say later, we were there. And I'm glad to be alive right now to see it.

11:58pm Obama on stage, about to speak.

11:47pm Still waiting on four Senate races. Alaska polls close in just over ten minutes. Votes are still being counted in Oregon -- Dem Jeff Merkley has an edge over incumbent Republican Gordon Smith. Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss is currently polling over 50% in Georgia, which would preclude a December run-off. In the most interesting race of the night, Al Franken and Norm Coleman are almost exactly tied with just under half of all precincts reporting in Minnesota. Independent Dean Barkley is puling 15% of the vote so far, which is rather surprising. It's about what he was polling pre-election; typically support for independent candidates collapses on Election Day. Barkley was always likely to hold up better than other indies since Minnesota has a history of supporting and electing independent candiates; nevertheless, one would expect a substantial downtick in his support. Since he's probably drawing votes from Franken, that might have made the difference. Instead we get a nail-biter.

11:36pm Nevada goes for Obama. Obama now meets Rove's number -- but I suspect he'll pick up North Carolina, Indiana, and maybe Missouri before the night is through.

11:33pm Oprah!

11:25pm Huge cheers for Sarah Palin. She looks misty-eyed. Not exactly like she's conniving for victory in 2012. I suppose that will wait till tomorrow.

11:21pm Graceful speech so far, offering a paean to the significance of this moment in American history. Elicits applause and cheers from the crowd.

11:19pm McCain speaking. Seems a little bit choked up. Boos from the audience as he announces that he has called Barack Obama to congratulate him on his victory.

Photo provided under a CC license by Matt Wright

11:09pm The last eight years are over. America has re-entered the world. The nation seemse suddenly so much younger after eight years where it seemed so very old.

11:00pm BARACK OBAMA ELECTED FORTY-FOURTH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

10:56pm Bill Bennett spin watch: 'John McCain said he'd rather lose an election than lose a war. And he's going to lose an election.'

10:54pm Six minutes till polls close on the west coast -- and Obama wins.

10:49pm Anderson Cooper is interviewing a hologram of will.i.am. Mind: boggled.

10:43pm Fox News projects Virginia for Obama. We here at The Lion and Gun's Media Center have decided not to watch Fox anymore. It's pretty depressing.

10:28pm Tuned into the middle of Murtha's speech. We all thought it was a concession. Apparently it wasn't.

10:26pm Daily Show live kind of sucks.

10:21pm span style="font-size:100%;">Taking a closer look at Indiana and Florida -- most of the counties remaining to report in full are Dem leaning. In Florida especially, where Obama is already leading, we're waiting to hear form a lot of folks in Miami and Palm Beach; in Indiana it's Indianapolis and Gary. I think it's fair to project Florida for Obama at this point. Indiana is still close but my money wouldn't be on McCain.

10:16pm South Dakota's abortion ban has been defeated; Colorado has rejected a definition of life beginning at conception.

10:01pm Switching to Colbert/Daily Show.

10:00pm Next round of polls close. Obama gets Iowa, McCain Utah and Kansas.

9:55pm MSNBC calls Texas for McCain. I'm frankly surprised it took this long.

9:52pm I thought I'd enjoy watching Fox News. I don't. Watching Bill Bennett on CNN try to spin this as a Republican moral victory is vastly more entertaining.

9:47pm The rest is just schadenfreude.



9:44pm John King: 'Go to CNN.com, play around, see if you can figure out a way for McCain to win.' Because we're stumped.

9:42pm John King shows pretty clearly that John McCain can't win. If he remains every remaining state save Oregon, Washington, California, and Hawaii -- all reliably Democratic -- he will still lose.

9:30pm Dana Bash: McCain campaign is no longer showing news and network projections to the assembled crowd at the Arizona Biltmore. Ignorance is something or other.

9:35pm SD: 'It would be really easy to pick up in Chicago right now.' AH: 'Yes you can.'

9:33pm AH has just arrived as we were watching Fox News. First words: 'It's like watching a funeral.'

9:26pm Louisiana for McCain says MSNBC. Chuck Todd doesn't care. Obama's got Ohio. The western third of the continent could sink into the Pacific and Obama would still have this.

9:25pm Wolf Blitzer promises a major call after the commercial break. Wolf, you're such a tease.

9:23pm West Virginia for McCain. Where white people love white people.

9:19pm Mitch McConnell re-elected in Kentucky. This makes the 60-vote goal a tougher goal for Democrats to reach.

9:18pm And Fox calls Ohio for Obama. This gives Brit Hume sadface.

9:17pm Switch back to Fox to see . . . Brit Hume discussing their big-screen board technology with Karl Rove.

9:08pm MSNBC and Fox have given Georgia to McCain. This was the bold prediction I made most confidently. I am abashed.

9:06pm Ask a stupid question. . . Anderson Cooper, slightly paraphrased: 'How does this election change race relations?' Bill Bennett, barely paraphrased: 'We'll no longer have to accept black belly-aching about discrimination.'

9:05pm Christ Matthews suggests that now is the time to order the pizza. Oops. A moment ago he told Tom Delay, and I'm quoting here, 'I love the way you hate.'

9:00pm A huge number of states just closed. Obama picks up Rhode Island, former swing state Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New York; McCain gets Wyoming and North Dakota. What's surprising is the number of states that haven't been called -- including Republican strongholds like Texas. Republican co-watcher RE points out that North Dakota has been called for the Republcan, but redder South Dakota has not.

8:58pm Alabama to John McCain.



8:53pm CNN projects that Elizabeth Dole has lost her North Carolina Senate seat to Democrat Kay Hagen. This was a close race until Dole ran an ad against Hagen accusing her of godlessness. Polls have always suggested that Americans would rather elect a President who hurts puppies than one who doesn't believe in God -- so to all atheists and agnostics the defeat of Elizabeth Dole as a direct result of this ad is a cause for celebration.

8:49pm Brit is pontificating on the green screen again. That's about four out of the last six minutes. Either he's spent the past 17 years in a cryogenic freeze or he's in the first stage of the Kübler-Ross grief cycle.

8:45pm Fox's Brit Hume takes about two and a half minutes to exclaim the amazing green screen technology FNC has employed for their coverage.

8:43pm Crowd subdued at McCain's rally at the Arizona Biltmore in Phoenix. Wolf Blitzer speaks with usual gravitas.

8:39pm CNN calls Pennsylvania. Cut to image of Obama supporters celebrating the news at Grant Park. Thousands in Times Square. This is an important moment in American history.

8:33pm Can't believe the Senate race in Kentucky is this close -- Republican Mitch McConnell is ahead of Democrat Bruce Lunsford by only two points. This suggests the strength of Obama's tailcoats, and the Democratic tide.

8:32pm Ross, just saw that your concert was postponed. My condolences.

8:28pm So who has projected Pennsylvania and who hasn't? MSNBC/NBC, ABC, and now Fox and CBS. CNN still has not. They are the lone holdouts.

8:25pm Jeanne Shaheen wins New Hampshire's Senate race, Fox News projects.

8:16pm Pizza's arrived. Pizza plus massive Democratic majority = joy.

8:08pm What's John King going to do with The Wall when he's done?

8:02pm MSNBC has called Pennsylvania for Barack Obama. That's it. He's won this thing.

The Lion and Gun is now calling the election for Barack Hussein Obama, the 44th President of the United States of America.

8:01pm No projection yet for Mississippi or Alabama. I doubt Obama will win either, but the fact that it's close is significant. Obama consistently outperformed polling in southern states during the primaries -- usually by double digits. He's ahead in North Carolina 62%-38%. This is going to be a blow-out, but what is more heartening to me is the number of African-American voters this is pulling into the process.

8:00pm We know there are a ton of projections because the music was loud and graphics ostentatious. CNN says Obama wins MA, IL, CN, NJ, ME, DE, MD, and DC. John McCain wins OK and TN.

7:57pm South Carolina projected for John McCain. Took almost an hour. Not good for John McCain.

7:54pm Republican co-watcher RE is looking for any Romney-Jindal 2012 t-shirts that might be for sale. You can contact him via the comments.

7:43pm Co-results-watcher AC is surprised to discover I am blogging while we watch the election and wonders what I am blogging about. He is surprised to discover that at the moment I am blogging about his question about what I'm blogging about.

7:37pm By way of Talking Points Memo, Dems are feeling good about a bellwether county in Indiana.

7:34pm Waiting for pizza. Hungry. My friend and co-election-results-watcher has made good choices of toppings. I am gratified.

7:29pm Close in Kentucky -- could Mitch McConnell lose it?

7:12pm Still waiting for projections of the big east coast swing states -- Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia -- where my gut still tells me there'll be an upset.

7:07pm Switching between networks. Normally would settle on CNN and MSNBC but I'm really going to enjoy watching Fox tonight. One beer in, by the way. And Indiana still not called.

Mood turning jubilant. Long lines - half mile at least - to get into the gated off part of the park. You can see the people wrapped around the park here:

Concert postponed. Much sadness at the Hobbes household tonight.

Obama picks up Vermont.

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner picks up a Senate seat for the Dems in Virginia.

Neither result is much of a surprise.

CNN calls it.

They're showing Obama up in virtually every swing state -- but take it gigantic grains of salt. I can remember the crushing disappointment as John Kerry's exit poll victory became defeat.

Not many results in yet but Obama's leading -- and we won't be hearing from Chicagoland adjunct Gary until 8pm. It's there that Obama ran up huge leads in the Indiana primary and is likely to run up the tally in this contest as well.

Heading out to our Media Center. Will be back online and blogging in about half an hour, shortly after first polls close. See you then.

Fox News and right-wing blogs lost their collective minds this morning over this report of two Black Panthers, one of whom was escorted away by police, hanging around outside a polling place in Philadelphia.



Okay, so I'm not in favor of scary looking dudes with nightsticks hanging around polling places. And maybe this is something that deserves a report on local news and a passing mention -- with so many other voting problems -- on the twenty-four-hour networks. And as far as I can tell, that's how the rest of the nets handled it.

But to dedicate even a few minutes of screentime to this story on Fox is, I think, would be irresponsible even if the deplorable intent behind playing up this story weren't so obvious. It plays to some Americans' absolute worst racial fears. And as the festering rage this has provoked on some blogs (and in some comments sections) shows, it will help to advance the scurrilous storyline that the election was stolen from hard-working white people by evil scary black men intent on seating a radical white-hating terrorist-loving African-American behind the Resolute desk.

This isn't just irresponsible. It's dangerous.

(h/t Digby)

Update: The Panther in question, King Shamir Shabazz, is decidedly not an Obama supporter.

The New York Times is getting all web 2.0 with a voter mood cloud. Enter a word to describe your mood and then see if other voters feel the same way. The contrast between Obama and McCain supporters is stark, if not exactly surprising. Top word for how Dems feel? Hopeful. For Republicans? Resigned.

Ralph Nader is a boob. But I've gotta admit that this is pretty hilarious:

Nader closed his third-party presidential campaign today at a small press conference in Washington D.C.'s National Press Club. He instructed reporters that he would only give one-word answers to all questions posed -- in a sarcastic nod to the sound-bite nature of election coverage.

What is your opinion of Obama? "Clever."

What is your opinion of Palin? "Developing."

How much money did you raise for your campaign? "Insufficient."

What should Bush do on his last day in office? "Surrender."

Will Obama be able to provide tax cuts to 95 percent of the population? "Impossible."

The campaigning stops - or at least pauses for a year or so. Thank god. Endless electioneering is the enemy of reasoned decision making - and I am glad to see November 4th finally arrive.


Casting my ballot was a strange experience. I had never voted Democrat before - and I did so grudgingly. Like other libertarians I feel cast out of the Republican fold in favor of more energetic, and partisan, social conservatives. Some watershed moments for me this campaign included Mitt Romney's speech on faith where he explicitly excluded non-believers from his world of political acceptability, McCain's flip-flop on fiscal responsibility (supporting Bush tax cuts during a time of heightened war related expenditures), and perhaps most galling - the choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. I had high hopes for a McCain candidacy, and was so disappointed. He was nominated to appeal to independents, yet when push came to shove he shunned them.

So I voted for Obama, and Senate Dick Durbin. I voted Republican in the house - I suspect our Dem Rep is corrupt. I left the rest of the races blank...I don't know anything about the judges on the ballot or why I should care about the State Senate.

The fact that I had just voted Dem really struck me as I left the polling place. As I left the building a familiar face stood before me. Literally staring me in the face was Chicago Mayor Richard Daley - really. He shook my hand, asked where I was from, and we posed for a picture. He was standing inside the cone labeled 'no electioneering beyond this point'. Nobody seemed to mind. This is Chicago. It's a good year to be a Chicago Democrat.

Beyond exogenous events and other campaigns' mistakes, the keys to Barack Obama's impending victory will be his campaign's extraordinary organization and its strong messaging. Messaging, I have remarked in the past, is strategic and long-term. It is the formation of a narrative over time through framing events and repetition. If successful, a candidate will merge with an attractive idea ('change') and his outlook will approach conventional wisdom.

Both John McCain and Hillary Clinton failed at this task. Clinton's chosen message, experience, was trumped by Obama's, and her campaign floundered through January and February to find a new theme. John McCain, on the other hand, never really had a consistent message at all. Before the election he spent a decade and more carefully building a message -- beyond that, a genuine brand. But he quickly chucked it into the dustbin of history once he wrapped up the nomination and panicked at the thought that base conservatives might not come home.

In contrast, Barack Obama's message has been steady through the election with only minor, and for the most part smooth, course corrections. But what is really remarkable is re-watching Obama's Democratic National Convention keynote speech from more than four years ago. It was his emergence on the national stage (and the first time your humble blogger laid eyes on the man), partly as an adjunct to another candidate's Presidential campaign, and yet many of its broad themes animated Obama's final round of rally speeches this past week.

And as we wait for the first results (and leaked exits), now's as good a time as any to lean back and look back at this first step down the road to Grant Park, Chicago, 9pm, November 4th, 2008.

Make sure you're voting correctly. Beware butterfly ballots and hanging chads.

The weather is gorgeous, and the t-shirt vendors are already out full force. There will be a party tonight.

Ross isn't at home at the moment but hopefully will be getting some pictures and reports to us from the scene at Grant Park -- where Obama supporters have already been lined up for hours waiting for this evening's festivities to begin -- a little later.

Excitement builds.

Ezra Klein has collected testimonials to how easy voting is everywhere that isn't, well, America. One sample:

I voted in the recent Canadian federal election. As is typical for me, it took about 10 minutes to stroll to the polling place, 5 minutes to vote, and 10 minutes to wander back -- in the middle of the largest city in the country.

How hard is it to run an election properly?

You can read The Lion and Gun's predictions here -- but after that it's time to man up and make your own. This is an open thread for prognostication and pontification. We'll see who's right and who has egg on their face. And if you come closest to having the correct prediction, well, you won't win anything, but you will have the momentary respect of people you don't know and will probably never meet. There's something in that.

So: Throw down.

Photo provided under a CC license by Chesi

A long-time Obama supporter tells us why he did not vote for Obama for President this morning. He has the best reason I've seen. Can't explain it, really. Just go read it.

The Republican Vice-Presidential nominee, having just voted, is speaking with reporters at an impromptu press conference in Alaska's early morning dark.

Better late than never, I suppose.

And as I listen to her typically vacuous answers to journalists' questions -- struck as always by her tendency to keep talking even when she's already made it abundantly clear she doesn't know what she's talking about, as though a surfeit of monosyllabism will make up for her almost total lack of knowledge and understanding -- and I find myself reflecting that this might, with any luck, be one of the last times I see her.

She's certainly been an electrifying and divisive character. I'm skeptical of the claims that she destroyed the Republican ticket (though she certainly didn't help). But she certainly transformed the dynamic of the McCain campaign. And her selection has made clear the contours of the battle about to be waged for the conservative heart.

To my TV-less brothers and sisters out there -- MSNBC has got you covered. The internets is awesome.

It's going to get hectic soon. We'll have the first exit polling data coming down the pike, and we all know not to take it seriously and we all remember it showed Kerry winning four years ago and yet we're all going to obsessively read it like sheep's entrails until real numbers come pouring in starting at 6pm EST.

But before that happens, let's take a moment to reflect on what a campaign it's been. I won't impose my own version of the narrative on you. But whoever you support I think you'd have to agree that this has been a remarkable two years.

It seems that with every election people trip over each other to proclaim it the Most Important of our Lifetime. I'm not sure if that's really the case. Maybe it is. But in some sense, looking at the disaster of the past four years, 2004 might have been the more vital cycle. As important as efforts to rescue drowning passengers on a sinking ship might be, I think you could make the case that it would have been better that the ship not hit the iceberg in the first place. Anyway, by now this election's a no-brainer.

Nevertheless, it really has been probably the most exciting and extraordinary campaign since Nixon/Humphrey, or maybe Nixon/Kennedy. The nation might or might not change in fundamental ways. The Republican party might or might not be reduced to a conservative rump. Barack Obama might or might not be a transformational President.

But I am convinced that, come what may, this election will be a landmark that helps to shape and define my generation the way John F. Kennedy's Presidency defined my parents' generation. And there's something exciting about that. To really feel like you're living history -- such moments are rare and, alas, rarely good ones. But for many Americans, whichever side of the political divide they stand on, this moment is a truly great one.

Let's be aware of that today. Let's enter the moment with eyes open. Let's vote, let's hope. And let's devour exit polls like candy even though we know it's bad for us.

As if your life depended on it.

And America, I have good news: The last eight years are over.

So go make history -- or, at any rate, 1/140,000,000th of it.

(Originally posted at 12:45am. Updated with a map doo-dad instead of a list of states and promoted. I knew there was an easier way to do this.)

I've dusted off The Lion and Gun's official electoral crystal ball and peered deep into its murky depths.



The crystal ball is feeling pretty good about Obama's chances. Here's what it told me. Battleground states are highlighted blue or red depending on which candidate the ball predicts will win it.

Popular Vote:

Electoral Votes:

Etc.:

• Al Franken will barely win his Senate race
• Saxby Chambliss will get his for being mean to Max Cleland when black turnout surges in Georgia and lifts Dem Jim Martin to victory
• Republicans Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and Roger Wicker in Mississippi will keep their Senate seats but John Kennedy will fail to unseat Dem Mary Landrieu in Louisiana
• Kay Hagen will send GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole packing in North Carolina
• Gordon Smith will lose to Jeff Merkley in Oregon
• Ted Stevens will neither pass Go nor collect $200
• The final season of Battlestar Galactica will be pretty good, but a little disappointing

As any fan of The West Wing will know, there is a tiny village in New Hampshire -- called Hartsfield's Landing on the show, called Dixville Notch in real life -- where polls open at midnight on November 4th and close at 12:01am. They are the first results to report, by about eighteen hours, and can eat up a bit of the news cycle on election day. The results aren't exactly a bellwether, however. The village has voted Republican in every all but one election since it began midnight voting in 1960.

Until now.

Twenty-one Dixville Notchers voted. The final tally: Obama 15, McCain 6.

Take from this what you'd take from any anecdote. A strongly Republican small town in a crucial swing state that's been kind to John McCain votes for Obama by a three-to-one margin. It's a good way to start the day -- and, for me, to end it.

Update: Talking Points Memo corrects my account. The village voted for Dem Hubert Humphrey in 1986 1968 [let this be a lesson: don't update your blog at 1:24am on four hours' sleep].

For those of you new to this blog, Ross and I had an exchange about the danger (and value) of narratives a few weeks back. Kevin Drum gives us a lucid (and amusing) example in support of Ross's thesis that narratives are usually imposed upon reality and not the other way around:

In 2004, everyone complained that John Kerry was an old-media plodder who didn't react quickly enough to conservative attacks. What a dunce! In 2008, everyone is praising Barack Obama for keeping his composure and not letting conservative attacks knock him off his message. What a cool customer!

First polls close in Dixville Notch barely an hour from now. It's Christmastime for politics geeks -- and worth a little celebration. (Video autoplays so you'll find it after the jump.)

The mastermind of the permanent Republican majority gives it to Obama 338-200.

The Lion and Gun's official predictions will be online shortly.

Some more Obama as scary Other:

Palin Warm-Up Act: Obama "Not Real Crazy About" National Anthem

Country star Hank Williams Jr. takes a swipe at Obama's patriotism before singing the national anthem at a Palin rally in Colorado Springs.

Palin: "Hey, he exercises those First Amendment rights."

There are several stories this evening on Joe Biden's claim that he was gaffe-free on the trail for Obama. And as far as I can tell he's right. Biden had one brush with gaffe when he suggested an Obama administration would be tested in its early days, but in spite of a concerted effort by Republican flacks it never rose above the level of non-story. (At least, not anywhere that's not Fox News.) And yet the media still devotes time and space to stories about Biden's gaffe-making, even if the story simply reports there's no story to report.

Chalk it up as one more example of media narrative gone awry. Biden's made gaffes in the past so he's expected to make them again, and if he doesn't -- well, that's fit to print, too. He might make it through a grueling general election campaign gaffeless, and yet that will be forgotten the instant he lets his tongue wag ahead of his brain once more. It could be two weeks from now or two months or two years. Doesn't matter. It'll still be, oh, Joe, there you go again.

Anyway, not all narratives are imposed by hindsight. Some order the present. Others project themselves into the future.

Photo provided under a CC license by Stephen Bolen

Courtesy of MSNBC The Lion and Gun will be providing you with election results in real time tomorrow evening. You can see where the results will be displayed in the sidebar at right.

This is as good a time as any to let you know TLaG's plans for tomorrow. I will be blogging at a furious pace throughout the day to keep you up-to-date on the latest news the instant it hits. Then I'll be moving to The Lion and Gun's Toronto Bureau Media Center shortly before polls close tomorrow evening, so don't expect much activity between 5:30pm and 6:00pm. After that I will be updating the site through the night with TLaG's customary insight, analysis, and irreverent wit.

Our Chicago bureau chief Ross Hobbes, who has been busy with family for most of the week, will be busy with family for most of the evening. In case you missed it, my blogging partner-in-crime will be attending a Celine Dion concert. On election night. With his in-laws.

This continues to amuse me immensely.

To make up for it, once the concert lets out he will be reporting live from the scene at Barack Obama's victory rally in Chicago's Grant Park. We'll be posting exclusive photos of the action later in the night.

After the Celine Dion concert. Which Ross is going to. On election night. With his in-laws. Brilliant.

My mother always taught me that if you have nothing nice to say about something don't say anything at all:

As you know, the media relies on exit polling to formulate their news coverage of Election Day. Likewise, the campaigns make estimations as the day wears on via exit polls. Lastly, in preparing for the next election's polling, some pollsters will use exit polling to help them. We know how well that's gone this year.

I have a hearty suggestion for all of us: seek out exit pollsters. Find them. Be willing to engage in the exit polling. And lie. Tell the exit pollsters you voted for Barack Obama. Tell them you are a diehard liberal. But tell them you voted for Barack Obama.

Then go home and watch the media realize there is something badly wrong with their data and make them have to watch the results come in with the rest of us.

Let's give one last hurrah to Operation Chaos.

Barack Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died in Honolulu. She was 86 years old.

This must be a great loss for Senator Obama which will cast a pall over what should be a triumphant day. Obama's 'Toot', who he wrote about at length and with great affection in his memoir, did not live long enough to see her grandson elected President. Now neither of Obama's parents, nor the grandparents who helped raise him, will live to see him as President. How sad.

Our thoughts and condolences are with Senator Obama.

More information coming soon.

Update: Those on the right that pushed the bogus line that Obama was using his grandmother as cover to hide his birth certificate (or forge a new one or whatever it was paranoiac hacks thought he was doing) should be ashamed of themselves. They won't be, but they should be.

Late Update: And right-wingnuts theorize that Obama timed his grandmother's death for political effect. (h/t M.J. Rosenberg at TPMCafé)

Full statement from the Obama camp below the jump.

Statement from Barack Obama and Maya Soetoro-Ng on the death of their grandmother, Madelyn Dunham:

"It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer. She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances. She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure.

"Our family wants to thank all of those who sent flowers, cards, well-wishes, and prayers during this difficult time. It brought our grandmother and us great comfort. Our grandmother was a private woman, and we will respect her wish for a small private ceremony to be held at a later date. In lieu of flowers, we ask that you make a donation to any worthy organization in search of a cure for cancer."

An additional statement from Sotoro-Ng:

"My grandmother made her home on these islands since 1959, and she loved the people of Hawaii. We want to thank Tutu's friends and extended ohana for the outpouring of aloha over the past few weeks. We received cards, letters, and gifts that helped lift her spirits, and we are very grateful for everybody's support."

Keep reading...

Retract post

Obama's aunt, living as an illegal immigrant in Boston, has become the subject of a robocall in Pennsylvania. Apparently it has nothing to do with the election. On the contrary, it's looking beyond November 4th:

The president of the independent group calling Pennsylvania voters about Jeremiah Wright about about Obama's aunt said the calls are a relatively small-scale "test" for future work on illegal immigration.

Tim Crawford, president of NewModelsUSA.org, which is a 501(c)4 group, said he placed 32,000 calls into Pennsylvania on the issue ("hardly anything") "to see if it's a viable way to talk about an issue."

Posters plastering the Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania today, placed there by the 'League of American Patriots':

Do you really want a Black President?
Black ruled nations are among the most violent, unstable nations in the world. . . .
Do you really want a Marxist President? . . .
Do you really want an anti-White President?
It is all about Racial Barack Hussein Obama is supported by Louis Farrakhan and the New Black Panther Party.

We at “the League” are committed to restoring America to the principles upon which it was founded. First and foremost is halting the rapid demographic decline of the European peoples in our homeland. No civilization has survived the sort of rapid demographic transformation that this country has undergone since the 1960’s. This nation cannot undergo such a change and expect to remain the world’s superpower. Those of European ancestry who pioneered the United States, Canada and Australia must collectively assert our interests.