Monday, November 3, 2008
Republicans
Ezra Klein counters that the two-party system will likely regain its balance, meaning the Republican party will realize the electoral error of moving to the right. And in the long run he's probably correct, but I doubt that will happen without a conservative electoral defeat.
It's possible another relatively moderate candidate will win the Republican nomination in four years -- that's a function of the field and exogenous events -- but unless (and possibly even if) a relatively moderate Republican wins the White House in four years, the conservative base is likely to remain both unswayed and influential.
After all, the ideological make-up of the GOP doesn't suggest a 'moderate' (sorry, I mean 'maverick') like McCain should be its best standard-bearer. McCain won because he faced a weak crowd which split conservatives. Neither his victory nor his defeat will convince the right that a move to the center is the way to go. Barring the emergence of an overpowering moderate movement within the party -- possible but unlikely in the foreseeable future -- strong conservatism will remain the order of the day until a real conservative runs and is walloped.
I've already order my Palin/Jindal '12 tees.
The GOP's McGovern Moment
Written by Matthew Locke at 1:01 PMKevin Drum speculates what will happen after tomorrow:
[T]he upshot is that both parties get moved to the right. Most of the Democratic pickups will be in centrist states and districts, which will move the Democratic caucus moderately toward the center. At the same time, it will remove these centrist states and districts from the Republican side, which will make the GOP caucus not just smaller, but even more conservative than it is now. As a touchstone, the Republican Study Committee, the hardcore conservative wing of the House GOP contingent, currently represents a little over half of their total strength. After Tuesday they're likely to represent nearly two-thirds, which means that the rump of the House Republican caucus remaining after Tuesday is likely to be almost entirely in the hands of the most faithful of the movement conservative faithful. These true believers are not likely to give in quickly to the notion that hardcore conservative ideology needs a bit of freshening up if the party wants to regain its competitive edge. On the contrary, they'll probably double down, convinced that they lost only because John McCain and George Bush abandoned the true faith that America truly yearns for.
Ezra Klein counters that the two-party system will likely regain its balance, meaning the Republican party will realize the electoral error of moving to the right. And in the long run he's probably correct, but I doubt that will happen without a conservative electoral defeat.
It's possible another relatively moderate candidate will win the Republican nomination in four years -- that's a function of the field and exogenous events -- but unless (and possibly even if) a relatively moderate Republican wins the White House in four years, the conservative base is likely to remain both unswayed and influential.
After all, the ideological make-up of the GOP doesn't suggest a 'moderate' (sorry, I mean 'maverick') like McCain should be its best standard-bearer. McCain won because he faced a weak crowd which split conservatives. Neither his victory nor his defeat will convince the right that a move to the center is the way to go. Barring the emergence of an overpowering moderate movement within the party -- possible but unlikely in the foreseeable future -- strong conservatism will remain the order of the day until a real conservative runs and is walloped.
I've already order my Palin/Jindal '12 tees.
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