The Lion and Gun

I'm of the opinion that time spent talking about Sarah Palin instead of John McCain is time wasted for Democrats -- time wasted for anyone, really. But I have plenty of time to waste. And, anyway, tonight's the debate, so let me indulge.

We're hearing a lot these days about the 'expectations game', another one of those once-useful phrases half-beaten-to-death by know-nothing would-be politicos trying to prove their street cred with talismanic catch-phrases ostensibly encompassing all that matters into two words (five syllables between them). As a result, almost everyone writing about tonight's debate seems determined to one-up their competition by setting the bar more outlandishly low: suddenly this has become political t-ball and as long as Gov. Palin manages not to drool on herself too much, or in a way that can be caught by the television cameras, it'll be a resounding victory for Team McCain. In that case this -- the Couric interview, the Gibson interview, hiding from anyone with a notepad or a tape recorder, all of it -- will prove to have been some brilliant Manchurian Candidate maneuver exposing not Sarah Palin's incompetence but Steve Schmidt's demented brilliance.

Or maybe not.

Maybe, sometimes, stupid just is as stupid does. If Palin performs poorly, but not as poorly as some fear or hope or expect, viewers might just say to themselves, 'Hmmm, not as incompetent as I thought, but still pretty damned incompetent.'

Look, I'm not going to deny the importance of expectations in politics, but I don't think that importance should be overblown. Especially when what we're dealing with is, after all, a Vice-Presidential debate. It's become almost cliché to say that the guiding consideration in choosing a running mate is 'First do no harm,' but it's true. Sarah Palin energized the base but if the past few weeks have proved anything it's that there's much more she can do to harm the ticket than to help it. So while a not-very-good performance might staunch some of the McCain campaign's hemorrhaging, to outright reverse the trend against them she's got to knock it way out of the park -- or else hope that Joe Biden makes a pretty damaging gaffe.

You can decide which is the more likely outcome.

Update: I've given this some more thought, and it strikes me that expectations were high that Obama would win the first debate, and despite a performance that most pundits characterized as a draw for Obama at best, all indications now are that he still managed to walk away the victor in voters' eyes. Obviously the expectations handicap is stronger in Palin's case than in McCain's, but my point remains that it's mostly overblown.