The Lion and Gun

I more or less agree with Hobbes. I think Biden won on substance, but Palin managed not to eat her own head so there'll be some political types who'll call this a win by not losing. I frankly think it's the other way around: when your ticket is eight points in the hole you always lose by not winning. I don't care how low the bar is set; this thing ain't won on points.

In some ways it reminded me of the Kerry/Bush debates in '04, Biden slipping into Senatese and Palin playing just folks. Still, I'm doubtful someone who sounds like a Fargo extra in a Frank Capra movie can really connect with Joe Sixpack. (Nor anyone, for that matter, who actually calls him 'Joe Sixpack'.) And, like McCain a week ago, I think her demeanor worked against her once the cheerines began to grate: like a Chatty Cathy doll spouting talking points without feeling or understanding. Those few moments where she slipped off script were clear; like in the Couric interviews she strung appealing words together in more or less random order till finding her way back to platitudes or running out the clock.

Where do I think this leaves things? Pretty much where they were. Will it stop McCain's polling free-fall? Maybe. Maybe not. But while it might temporarily reduce the Pepto-Bismal intake in the GOP I doubt it'll rally wavering independents back onside. She hasn't killed McCain's chances with this single performance, but she also failed to cross the gap between beating expectations and looking remotely qualified.

We'll see how many agree as the polling rolls in.