Thursday, October 2, 2008
Election '08
Me, I take it to mean that 28% of independents and 22% of McCain supporters think they'll sound smarter to a pollster if they say the debate tonight will be very important for how they vote. Okay, this is Rasmussen, so they're talking to a machine, not a pollster. I don't think that dilutes my argument at all, but I am admittedly basing that judgment on my own irrational fear of voicemail and answering machines.
As I've intimated in a post below, while I expect tonight's debate to be mightily entertaining, and probably better-watched than last week's Presidential bout (Must See TV!), I doubt the earth will shake. If Palin has a complete disaster the polls will keep trending for Obama; if she exceeds expectations they'll keep trending for Obama but a little more slowly; if she does fantastically well the race will probably settle. The best she can do is set up the shot for McCain to regain some momentum in the weeks to come. Otherwise the only X-factor here is the possibility of a major (especially sexist) gaffe by Joe Biden.
How Important is the Veep Debate?
Written by Matthew Locke at 2:13 PMDaniel Larison points to Rasmussen polling:
Looking at the crosstabs, I see that 28% of independents and 22% of McCain supporters say that the debate tonight will be very important for how they vote. I take this to mean that all these people could change their minds based on what happens tonight.
Me, I take it to mean that 28% of independents and 22% of McCain supporters think they'll sound smarter to a pollster if they say the debate tonight will be very important for how they vote. Okay, this is Rasmussen, so they're talking to a machine, not a pollster. I don't think that dilutes my argument at all, but I am admittedly basing that judgment on my own irrational fear of voicemail and answering machines.
As I've intimated in a post below, while I expect tonight's debate to be mightily entertaining, and probably better-watched than last week's Presidential bout (Must See TV!), I doubt the earth will shake. If Palin has a complete disaster the polls will keep trending for Obama; if she exceeds expectations they'll keep trending for Obama but a little more slowly; if she does fantastically well the race will probably settle. The best she can do is set up the shot for McCain to regain some momentum in the weeks to come. Otherwise the only X-factor here is the possibility of a major (especially sexist) gaffe by Joe Biden.
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